Opinion Formation through Popular Votes

Abstract

Referendums are often seen as instruments to enhance the legitimacy of political decisions. However, rather than assuming that referendums merely aggregate citizens’ preferences, we conceptualize them as arenas of opinion formation. We examine this dynamic in three studies of national referendums on European integration. First, time-series cross-sectional analyses of Eurobarometer data from 15 countries (1973–2012) show that EU referendums increase the proportion of citizens who have an opinion on the EU. Second, analyses of a broader set of referendum outcomes demonstrate that public opinion, revealed through these outcomes, reacts to elite cues. Third, panel surveys from two EU membership referendums trace opinion formation at the individual level. Together, these findings demonstrate that referendums not only allow citizens to voice their opinions on important issues but also provide a venue for these opinions to develop. Under certain conditions, referendums can also intensify political divisions on these issues.